Odds Of Winning Poker Tournament
- Poker calculators come in three flavors: poker advantage calculators, poker odds calculators and poker relative calculators. A poker odds calculator calculates a player's winning ratio. Winning ratio is defined as, the number of games won divided by the total number of games simulated in a Monte Carlo simulation for a specific player.
- The best tournament poker strategy is to recognize the three stages of any poker tournament and to have a distinct tournament poker strategy for each of the vital crunch times during a poker tournament. There are two approaches you can use when playing the early stages of a poker tournament. The first is the conservative approach.
Many players who have only watched poker tournaments on television may get the impression that tournaments are fast-paced events with chips flying and plenty of action throughout. Nothing could be further from the truth. Most major tournaments in brick and mortar casinos are marathon events ranging from several hours to multiple days. Even online tournaments can last eight or more hours. The length of a tournament is determined by how many chips the players start with, the length of the rounds before the blinds are raised and of course the number of players.
If you tried to make a play with the attempt of stealing the pot or are playing small ball poker (playing a wider set of starting hands) and up against a monster, like A-J, A-Q, or A-K, you’ll still have a 35% chance of winning the hand.
This year’s World Series of Poker main event had more than 8,700 players. The number of players was so large that the “first day” had to be broken down into four days of play to get the number down to a field that could be accommodated in the poker room. Then the play lasted another five days until a winner was crowned.
Whether a tournament lasts a few hours or a few days, they all have one thing in common. A tournament goes through stages and with each stage you must adjust your play if you want to be a winner.
If you were taking a long trip in your car the transmission would constantly be changing gears as you speed up or slow down along the way to adjust to road conditions. Just as you would not get in your car, push the accelerator to the floor and drive at the same speed for the entire trip, you should not play a poker tournament at a constant speed if you want to arrive at your destination in the winner’s circle.
When I refer to speed in a tournament I am really talking about whether the play is loose or tight. When the speed is fast there is a lot of loose play (players playing a lot of hands) with many players betting and raising. When play slows down the players are playing tight and being more selective with the hands they play. Once you start playing in poker tournaments you will begin to identify the various stages and notice the speed of the play.
Let’s start by looking at the stages of a tournament. Since the no- limit tournaments are the most popular, I will use them in this discussion but be aware that all tournaments have stages.
Early Stage
In the early stage of the tournament the blinds are low and many players are willing to play a lot more hands. Over the last few years with the increase in the number of players entering tournaments the beginning rounds have become amateur hour. There is an old adage that says, “You can’t win a no-limit tournament in the first hand, but you can lose one with it.”
Many novice players completely ignore this advice. They think the way to win is to try and double up immediately. These players have two moves, fold or go all in. It is not unusual to see one or two players making this move at the beginning of a tournament especially at the ones with a lower entry fee. The best strategy for playing against this type of player is to avoid a confrontation with them unless you have a premium hand. Many of these “all in maniacs” will get knocked out quickly. As the maniacs fall by the wayside, play tends to slow down in the early stages of the tournaments.
Your goals in the early stage of the tournament should be to increase your chip stack, identify the players at your table and their style of play and advance to the next round. You should use selective aggression by playing few hands but playing them with a raise instead of limping. Pay attention to your position at the table. If you are in early position you won’t want to play many hands.
Middle Stage
In the middle stage of the tournaments the blinds have increased and play will become slow and boring at times. In the middle stages of the tournament you will see the chip stacks start to spread out. There will be big stacks, small stack and some with just about average stacks.
The middle stage of a tournament starts off slow but gets faster when the blinds escalate. This is the time to build your chip stack so you can position yourself for the later rounds so you can take a run at the money. During the middle stage of a tournament the gap between the big stacks and smaller stacks widen. This is the time you will start to adjust your play based on the playing style of the others at your table.
If the other players are aggressive you will tend to back off and wait to trap them. If the players at your table are tight you will loosen up a little to take advantage of them by stealing the blinds. Your stack size will also determine how you play. If you have a short chip stack you will need to play more aggressively before your stack gets so low you can’t force anyone out with a raise.
If you have a medium stack you need to use some caution, but you don’t want to go into survival mode as the blinds will start to eat at your chip stack. With an average stack you can still go after the smaller stacks.
When you have a large stack in the middle stage you can use it to keep building your stack even bigger. The one thing you don’t want to do is get too loose and throw away chips by bluffing too much or calling raises with marginal hands.
Chances Of Winning An Online Poker Tournament
By the end of the middle stage the play is fast and furious as the smaller stacks are getting knocked out and the players are getting close to the money.
Late Stage
In the late stage of the tournament a funny thing happens right before it gets down to the paying positions. Play tightens up as players go into survival mode to try and make it into the money. No player wants to go out in the position right before the money. This is known as being on the bubble and it is the worst place to get knocked out of a tournament. You have played for hours or even days and you collect the same amount as the player who went out first. Nothing!
Right after all the players are “in the money” you will see play get looser again as some players who were just trying to survive to make it to the money blow off their small stacks. It’s almost as if they have given up and resigned themselves to settling for a small consolation prize. This is unfortunate because the real money from a tournament comes by finishing in the top spots at the final table.
If the tournament is large and paying many places you will see play start to tighten up again right before the final table. Your main goal in the later stage of the tournament will be making the final table and winning the event.
Final Table
The final table is like a separate mini tournament. It also has stages that run the gamut between tight and loose. During the final table you will usually see more aggression as most players will be entering the pots with a raise rather than a limp. It is also the time when it becomes as critical to play the player as it is to play the cards.
At the final table the play becomes short handed as the players get knocked out. The blinds and antes are big and you can’t afford to sit around waiting for a premium hand. With fewer players the value of starting hands go up. You will see players playing hands they would normally throw away at a full table. Players will be making moves based on their position, chip size and how they perceive the other players.
Playing the Player
I once heard no limit Hold’em described as a “people game played with cards.” If you want to win a poker tournament you can’t sit around waiting for premium cards. You are going to have to play the other players. This is why it is so important to pay attention and determine the playing style of every one at your table.
If someone is extremely tight you can take advantage of them by being the aggressor. Many times if two players see the flop, the one who comes out betting is usually the winner. Putting the tight player to the test by forcing them to call a big bet will usually win you the pot unless they have a strong hand. On the reverse side, if a tight player enters the pot with a big raise you can be sure that most of the time they have a hand.
Reading Your Opponents
The skilled players have an uncanny ability to be able to read their opponents. They think on a completely different level than many of the other players. I refer to this as the level of awareness and you can define a player into three basic levels.
Levels of Awareness
Level one: What do I have?
Players at this level are looking at their two cards and reading the board trying to determine their best hand. They are wearing blinders and are only focused on their hand. Depending on their skill level they may also be thinking about their odds of making a hand if they are on a draw. This type of player is usually oblivious to any of the other players in the hand.
Level two: What does my opponent have?
Players at this level are paying more attention to the other players that are at the table. They are looking beyond their own hand trying to figure out what cards their opponent has. Based on betting or previous play they try to put their opponent on a range of hands and then determine their chances of winning the hand. They will make decisions based on what they think the other player has and their odds of winning the hand. With practice a player can learn to read the other players at the table.
Level three: What does my opponent think I have?
Players at this level are trying to get inside the heads of their opponents. These players are expert at reading their opponents based on previous betting and actions they have made in the past. They do more than put a player on a hand. They take into account the playing style of their opponent such as whether they are tight or loose to further size them up. They try to determine what the other player thinks they have for a hand and how they can exploit it to their advantage. It does not matter what cards they are holding.
Odds Of Winning Poker Tournament
While these levels are an over simplification, they do give you an idea of the degrees of skill that different players possess. Your ability to read other players can only be achieved with practice. You can practice each and every time you play as long as you concentrate on the game and watch the other players.
Betting Patterns
You can sometimes detect the strength of an opponent’s hand just by noting their betting patterns. When a player enters a hand by just calling the amount of the big blind it is known as “limping in.” The majority of the time when a player limps in they have a weak or speculative hand and are looking to see the flop cheaply.
I was playing in a tournament against a player who I could read like an open book just from the bets he made. If he had a marginal hand he would limp in. If he had two big cards he would make a raise equal to the big blind. If he had a small pocket pair he would raise two times the big blind and if he had a big pocket pair he would raise three times the big blind. If I raised him when he limped in he would fold his hand the majority of the time.
Changing Gears
Good players will change gears during a tournament many times. They can read the pace of the table and adjust their play to do the opposite of the other players. They also want to capitalize on their own table image. A player who has been playing fast and furious and seems to be a very loose player will want to tighten up. They will tend to be called more and if they switch to playing tight they can trap the other players.
A player who has developed a tight table image can often bluff more successfully in the later rounds because of this tight image. Their opponents are less likely to call a big raise from early position by a player who has been playing tight all game.
There will be many times throughout the tournament where it will be necessary to change gears. You must be able to identify the time and make the change if you want to win. Some of these times will be based on your chip stack in relation to the other players.
Playing the Chip Stacks
Your chip stack can determine where you stand in relationship to the other players. If you divide the total number of chips in the tournament by the number of players left you can obtain a figure for the average chip stack. For example: If 100 players started the tournament with 1,500 chips there would be a total of 150,000 in play. If the tournament was down to 40 players the average chip stack would be 3,750.
Anytime your chip stack drops below 10-15 times the big blind you are short stacked. Players with a short stack become desperate to pick up some chips. It’s not uncommon to see a player with a short stack move all in with any ace or any pocket pair. This is usually a desperation move. Players with a short stack have a big bull’s eye on their backs. A player with a big chip stack will zero in on them like a heat-seeking missile.
When you have a large stack you can attack the short stacks by raising when you act before them. Unless they have a strong hand they will usually fold. They are waiting for a hand with which they can try and double up. One advantage to playing against a short stack is they can’t hurt you too bad if they do win the hand. The bluff is an important weapon when playing no limit Hold’em and having a big stack can help drive out the short stacks even if you don’t have a strong hand.
When you have a big stack, the one thing you want to avoid is getting into a confrontation with another big stack. Two big stacks going against each other usually ends badly for one of them.
With a large chip stack you will call more often in late position against a player with a short stack. This is because you have less to lose and more to gain if they don’t hit the flop. Of course you don’t want to call with nothing, but if you are heads up and think your hand is only a slight underdog, then making the call is usually the best one.
You want to keep track of your chip status throughout the tournament. Bucking heads with a loose player with a large chip stack is not advisable with a marginal hand when you have an average or small stack.
Bluffing
As I mentioned earlier bluffing has an important role in a no-limit tournament although you must pick your spots. The timing is important. You won’t bluff as often in the early stage of a tournament as you would in the later stages. This is because in the early stage the blinds are low and many of the players are playing loose. Bluffs will be more successful as the blinds get bigger and the stacks get smaller.
When you bluff you also want to be aware of your position and the players acting after you. If you are at a tight table, you may be able to get away with a bluff from early position. However if there are loose players acting after you, it will not work. Make sure to pick your spots based on the other players. It is also the time when it becomes as critical to play the player rather than playing your cards.
Tells
A tell is a mannerism or physical movement that can give you an indication of the strength of an opponent’s hand or tell you if the player is bluffing. It can be a voluntary movement to try to deceive you or it can be an involuntary reaction to the cards. The term “tell” is short for a telltale sign. Tells are the body language of the poker table. Some tells are fairly obvious while others can be subtler. Most pro players are masters at detecting the slightest tells given off by their opponents. They will use this information to outplay you. It does not matter what they hold for cards. They are making their play based on what they pick up from you.
One method the pros will use is to start a conversation with you at the table when you are not involved in a hand. They will note the tone of your voice and your demeanor. Later when they are involved in a hand with you they may ask you a question looking for a verbal response. If you do say anything, they may be able to pick up something from the tone of your voice to help them. This is why you see many players remaining mute when they are in a hand.
Most players are not wearing sun glasses to look cool. The eyes have been called the “window to your soul,” but in poker they can also be the path that leads to your chips. When a player’s eyes dart from the board to their chips after the flop, it usually means they hit something. Your pupils may also get bigger when you hit that monster hand. A blank stare at the board can mean that the flop has missed you.
Other players act weak when they are strong and strong when they have a weak hand. All of these little tells are information that an astute player will pick up on.
Winning Strategy
Tight players and maniacs seldom win poker tournaments. The players who win numerous events or seem to always be at the final table have learned to put it all together by mixing up their play, changing gears and getting the read on the other players.
The winning players know that there will be many times in the tournament when the cards they are holding don’t matter and it is more important to play the player. What you may see as a reckless play or indiscriminate bluff is likely to be a calculated play by a player who has a sharp read on the table.
Good Luck at the tables. Until Next time remember: Luck comes and goes ... Knowledge Stays Forever.
— Bill Burton is the Casino Gambling Guide and columnist for the Internet portal About.com. He writes for several national gambling publications. He is the author of “Get The Edge at Low Limit Texas Hold’em and 1000 Best Casino Gambling Secrets, each book available for $15 postage paid. Send checks to Bill Burton, PO Box 310299, Newington, CT 06131-0299 or order online at www.billburton.com.